Toward an Economic Model of Long-Term Storage
نویسندگان
چکیده
Society’s memory used to be stored on paper, which survives benign neglect well. It is now stored on digital media, which are less tolerant. A Blue Ribbon panel [2] has identified the economic sustainability of digital archives as a major problem. Economic threats are likely to be highly correlated among different archives, limiting the effectiveness of replicating data across archives. The lifetime of preserved data is much longer than the service life of the media storing it, thus cost/reliability tradeoffs are not made once, but continuously through the life of the data. The lifetime cost and reliability are pathdependent; predicting them requires Monte Carlo simulation. We are in the early stages of developing a simulation model which we hope will illuminate the impact of real-world situations on preservation economics. Such situations include sudden spikes in media cost (e.g., from floods in Thailand), possible future slowing of the exponential drop in media cost [6], and the competition between storage with high capital cost but low running cost (flash), lower capital cost but higher running cost (disk), and zero capital cost but higher running cost (cloud). Previous work in this area has either treated cost/reliability trade-offs as a one-time decision (e.g., [9, 1]), or has extrapolated historical cost data (e.g., [7]). We present example results from two of our early models showing that they exhibit plausible behavior as they model investment decisions through time.
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